Is Adobe Premiere the FCP8 upgrade we were waiting for?

So half a year or so into Final Cut X, and I still haven't tried it. It's taken me awhile to figure out why, but basically there is one reason, and one reason alone: Reverse-Compatibility, or lack thereof.

Basically what is comes down to is that I'm not interested in relying on two systems that don't talk to each other. If FCPX opened FCP7 files, I would be all over it, knowing that down the road, I would get used to it, and it would get better. But they say it's never going to open old files.

I'm an editor who decided that FCP was superior for my needs several years ago, and switched from Avid. I really invested in maximizing my efficiency with the software, getting Final Cut Studio Master Pro certification along the way. I turn down Avid projects because I don't want to waste time for no additional workflow benefit… I'm not interested in working in two environments at once, because I will become less efficient in both of them.

For those of us that have been editing more than six months, the reverse compatibility issue really sucks. Really, really sucks. It means I have to fight to keep Final Cut Studio installed on my system in the years to come in order to maintain old projects, and I know future OS upgrades will make that challenging.

I'm still working exclusively with Final Cut Pro 7. I haven't jumped in any direction because anything can happen, but I see the natural upgrade to FCP7 as being Adobe Premiere. Premiere will open FCP files, and you can get them back into FCP if necessary (the same way you would downgrade a project in FCP).

Apple has done something very strange with FCPX. They've created not an upgrade, but a new product. So it's a cross-grade. Down the road, the millions of happy FCP editors have no choice but to cross-grade to something. WHY would we cross-grade to another program from the same company that has killed multiple pro apps, when there is another program that has a very similar feature set to FCP, allows us to open FCP files, and quickly use our FCP keyboard shortcuts?

I love Apple products. Every time an iPad competitor comes out, everyone rightly says, "This is cool, but why would I get this instead of an iPad". Right now, the opposite is true for FCPX. Why would you upgrade to FCPX instead of Adobe Premiere? Why would you upgrade to FCPX instead of sticking with FCP7? There aren't a lot of reasons for either… and I feel that this is a defining moment for FCP… potentially a death blow.

I bought a copy of Premiere the other day to get in on the cross-grade price. I'm going to install it to make sure it works, but I likely won't use it at all for at least a year. Until I need it.

I'm a tinkerer. But this is also my business, and I have a family now. Every time I sit down to learn something or figure something out, there has to be a productive reason be spending time away from my family. Apple has given me no compelling reason to sit down and learn FCPX, and for that, I'm sad.

Side note: I'm focussing on Premiere here because I really think it's the closest competitor to FCP by far. Avid is great, but it's a completely different skill set, and a completely different learning curve. While it might be a worthy competitor, I don't think it's a natural upgrade/cross-grade from FCP.